3 things I'm thinking about this week...
1 - Just Ahead? On a road trip long ago, my wife and I saw a sign for a restaurant we wanted to visit. “Just ahead” it said…so we dutifully got over into the right lane. It turned out their definition of “just ahead” was 60 more miles. Perhaps only Buc-ee’s shares that same twisted sense of distance and humor:
Investors often dwell on what’s “just ahead.” Actions out of Washington, particularly in relation to tariffs and immigration policies (regardless of what you think about them) are causing, as the Fed itself noted this week, added economic uncertainty…something short-term markets detest.
In the long run, as people say over and over…things will be fine…which isn’t very comforting today. But recall the advantage of long-termism: Over your investment horizon, stock prices will move mostly on the changes to each business – cash flow, earnings, competitive position. And each of these businesses will adjust to the many “new normals” that come our way. The market has tackled every recession, pandemic, military conflict and change of Presidential political party that’s come around. So, I’ll keep my eyes the investing equivalent of 262 miles down the road…those that do tend to make better time toward your financial goals if you do.
2 - Clear and Present Danger. What a movie…in one scene, Harrison Ford’s Jack Ryan advises the President as follows:
“If a reporter asked if you and Hardin were friends, I'd say "good friends.” If they asked if you were good friends, I'd say "lifelong friends." Give them no place to go, nothing to report. No story.”
What Ray Dalio and others say is true…your investment decisionmaker must work to eliminate the gap between their perception of reality…and reality itself. How do these gaps develop? Mostly through behavioral biases. A big one: confirmation bias. Reading what reinforces your view. Not exploring the other side. Staying open minded isn’t a nicety but an investment must, because it leaves the gap…no place to go.
3 - Don't Wait. Life is what happens when you are busy making other plans, someone once said. I’ve found this to be true. This article from The Washington Post profiles an oncologist sharing wisdom from his patients on living meaningfully...the first item: don't wait until retirement to live the way you want to live.
…and one more thing
Another good combo: shed + bar at Costco:
